a good memecoin win rate.
Win rate is the stat everyone screenshots and the one that matters least on its own. In memecoins, a few winners do almost all the work, so how big your wins are against your losses decides everything.
two real wallets.
Wallet A won only 13% of its closed trades and still finished +1.32 SOL, because its winners were bigger than its losers (profit factor 1.24).
Wallet B won 23%, almost twice as often, and finished −0.93 SOL. Its biggest entries, over 2 SOL each, lost money, and 34 sub-minute flips cost it 3.55 SOL.
the number that matters: profit factor.
Profit factor is total money won divided by total money lost. Above 1 you are making money; below 1 you are funding everyone else. It works at any win rate:
- Sniper style: 10 to 25% win rate, a few huge runners. Profitable only if you never cut the runners early.
- Scalper style: 50 to 70% win rate with small wins. Profitable only if losses are cut faster than wins are taken.
- The trap: a high win rate with a profit factor under 1. You win often and lose big. It feels great until you look at the total.
so what is "good"?
Any win rate paired with a profit factor comfortably above 1 over at least a few dozen closed trades. Fewer than that and it is mostly luck. Look at return on what you put in, not the single best trade.
grade your wallet.
Free, read-only, no wallet connect. Not financial advice.